President Richard Nixon once observed that his perceived unpredictability often was a useful tool of his statecraft, an example of which was the historic 1972 “Opening to China.” Presently, there is some evidence that President Donald Trump sees a similar trait in himself. Today many uncertain world leaders would probably agree.
With characteristic hyperbole, candidate Trump on several occasions stated that he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours while giving absolutely no indication of how he would do this. Nonetheless, within two days of his election Trump had conversations with president Zelensky and Putin albeit with no details provided.
The dominant battlefield reality in the war is that Ukraine is running out of men to fight it, while Russia is not. Also clear is that the incoming Trump Administration is not going to support another “forever war” in Ukraine. Additionally, war fatigue is increasing among our NATO allies—as illustrated by the recent collapse of the German government over that very issue.
It is very likely that some form of negotiations will emerge in the very near future and the result will be a “frozen war” much like Korea in 1953. Thus Ukraine will survive as an independent but catastrophically battered state, while Russia will retain the territories it occupies when the killing finally stops. The terrible price of nearly three years of brutal warfare has been nearly 1 million dead and wounded.
In the Middle East, the fundamental struggle is an undeclared war between Iran (via its terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis) and Israel (with powerful logistical support from the US). The American election result was a bad thing for Iran, even before the FBI revelation that Iran had sponsored attempts to assassinate Trump.
Given the high likelihood that President Trump would again scuttle any nuclear deal and reimpose crippling economic sanctions, the mullahs—already reeling from Israel's relentless military offensive against their proxies post October 7th—must seriously rethink their options in the dramatically changing strategic landscape of today's Middle East.
Do they want to test the resolve of the “unpredictable” Trump or seek some accommodation with him? Part of their calculation must be that they can expect no respite from Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position in Israel has clearly been strengthened by the election of Donald Trump.
However American allies—Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand—feel threatened by the growing power and increasingly bellicose actions of the Chinese colossus. Facing even greater peril than these, however, is Taiwan, a small island nation that is “de jure” a part of China, but “de facto” a military protectorate of the United States.
The governments of these threatened nations look anxiously to a troubled and polarized United States, whose mighty economy and Navy has since 1945 been a guarantor of their independence and prosperity, and wonder—particularly in the wake of the humiliating Afghan withdrawal—if the reliability of America as an ally is no longer what it once was.
Also seeking to size up how a second Trump Administration might alter the geostrategic reality in East Asia are the Communist rulers in Beijing. They are very aware that significant numbers of U.S. political leaders in recent years have been trending toward viewing China not just as an economic rival but as a potential military enemy.
Of particular concern is Trump's past record of using tariffs and other economic pressure points to influence China's behavior. Adding to these concerns is Trump’s swift action in nominating a national security team well known for their hawkish attitudes towards China .
A final unknown in Asia’s strategic puzzle is North Korea—recently a new element in the Ukraine War—and its enigmatic leader, whose previous relations with President Trump bizarrely alternated between nuclear threats and cordial summits.
What is abundantly clear is that Donald Trump promised the American people “dramatic change,” and they delivered to him a landslide election victory and command of all branches of the U.S. government. He reenters the world stage as a force to be reckoned with. Change will come, but of what character we cannot yet say.
William Moloney studied history and politics at Oxford and the University of London and received his Doctorate from Harvard University. His articles have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the Hill, Washington Post, Washington Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Baltimore Sun, Denver Post and Human Events.