In a prophetic 1988 Oprah Winfrey interview—the same one where he praised tariffs and excoriated the way other nations had “ripped off” America economically, and the same one where he said he had not “ruled out” a future run for President—New York tycoon Donald Trump expressed his admiration for British historian Paul Kennedy, whose book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 had been published the previous year.
Kennedy's seminal work introduced the concept of “imperial overstretch,” a condition which fatally undermined great powers of the past such as Spain, France, Great Britain, and Germany—when their military obligations exceeded their economic resources over a sustained period of time.
He correctly foretold that the Soviet Union—which did indeed collapse in 1991—had reached such a tipping point, and he further warned that the United States at some point in the future would not be immune to such a fate if its already eroding economic foundation was not repaired.
Significantly the recent release of the National Security Strategy 2025 gives clear evidence that the economic viewpoints of the young Donald Trump continue to inform the policy worldview of his Presidency. This annually produced report to the Congress and the American people provides a comprehensive overview of the foreign policy goals of the administration and the manner in which they are designed to harmonize with the nation's domestic priorities.
As Greg Lawson's article—“The Common Sense Realism of the National Security Strategy” in The National Interest(12/5/25)—reported, a growing group of analysts have long argued that American foreign policy needs a massive course correction, a sharp break with the current posture “driven by ideological aspiration, institutional inertia, or the comforting illusions of unipolarity.”
Accordingly NSS 2025 boldly proclaims that “In everything we do we are putting America First.” Though predictably attacked as “isolationist” or “unilateralist,” in actuality NSS 2025 is a long overdue reorientation towards the Western Hemisphere, with strong emphasis on competing with China in the Indo-Pacific and across the world stage.
Notably it views that competition not in purely military terms, but in a much wider context of geo-economics linking national security to industrial policy, technological leadership, supply chain resilience, and advanced manufacturing.
In a reprise of the alarm bells set off among European allies by President Obama's famous 2011 pivot to Asia, the initial response to NSS 2025 has been shrill accusations of betrayal and abandonment similar to the expressions of outrage that met the sharp criticism launched by Vice President Vance at the Munich Security Conference in February.
Particularly ominous to NATO and EU leaders was the blunt assertion that Europe was facing “civilizational erasure” owing to uncontrolled immigration, a statement of fact made the more disturbing because it resonated powerfully with the sentiments of millions of European voters regarding that very issue which has dangerously destabilized all the major governments on the Continent.
The epicenter of US concerns with Europe is NATO's proxy war against Russia, with NSS 2025 declaring that the “expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine is a core interest of the United States.” Reflective of these reconfigured US national priorities is what should be a self-evident truth, namely that dangerous security threats in our own hemisphere “deserve more focus than who controls the Donbas.”
In looking at the proverbial Big Picture, what is particularly striking is that beyond the always central issue of economic well-being, the dominant underlying issue on both sides of the Atlantic is national sovereignty—who is a citizen, who gets to decide, and what entitlements do those who enter another country illegally deserve.
Deep-seated voter anger over these issues was decisive in returning Donald Trump to the White House. And even with America's borders now essentially closed, the four most controversial issues in American politics—ICE deportations of illegal aliens, bombing of cartel drug boats in the Caribbean, the birthright citizenship case now before the Supreme Court, and the massive fraud scandal revolving around Somali immigrants recently uncovered in Minnesota—are all variants on themes of borders and sovereignty.
While the political electoral processes in the United States gave decisive redress to these legitimate voter concerns, in Europe they have repeatedly failed to do so, resulting in a metastasizing crisis of democratic governance in countries that once were global models of societal stability.
Decisive turning points in American history are invariably attended by social upheaval and political turmoil but if the new directions have a foundation in democratic principles they can give birth to a healthier society. As the great American democracy prepares to celebrate its 250th birthday, we may hope that NSS 2025 may retrospectively be seen as a significant milestone in our national journey.
William Moloney studied history and politics at Oxford and the University of London and received his doctorate from Harvard University. His articles have appeared in the Wall St. Journal, USA Today, The Hill. The Washington Post, Washington Times. Philadelphia Inquirer, Baltimore Sun, Denver Post and Human Events.