“Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results” is a definition of insanity commonly attributed to Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955). Whatever the provenance of this aphorism, it is a perfect description of NATO's failed policy regarding the Ukraine war.
That policy, in essence, has been for the West to keep sending huge amounts of money, weapons, and “technical assistance“ to Ukraine while squeezing the Russians with sanctions. Now there is talk of adding new or “secondary” sanctions on top of the old (and thus far ineffectual) Russian sanctions.
There are two insurmountable problems with this strategy. First, it merely continues Biden’s dangerous policy of incremental escalation that to date has failed spectacularly. Second, it flatly contradicts the “Stop The Killing” doctrine repeatedly enunciated by US President Donald Trump.
Unfortunately for President Trump, his once promising peace initiative has stalled, owing to the intransigence of his intended “partners,” Presidents Zelensky and Putin. The former demands a ceasefire without previously agreed terms and conditions, while the latter refuses a ceasefire without them.
This deadlock is a certain formula for confirming Ukraine as another “forever war,” and amazingly, key European leaders seem to be all-in with this result, despite growing evidence that their peoples are not.
Even more alarming is that a large bipartisan majority of the United States Senate seems poised to jump on this “get tough with Putin” bandwagon by proposing a bill rife with internal contradictions, dubious legality, and no plausible likelihood of success.
The bill would severely punish China, India, Turkey, several EU members including France and Spain, and a large number of poor nations in the global South, all of whom have persisted in buying discounted oil and natural gas from Russia by circumventing the earlier sanctions.
Bizarrely, key clauses of this bill co-sponsored by Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn. call for imposing tariffs of “not less than 500%” on offending nations. Ironically these two sponsors have been among the severest critics of President Trump's tariff policy, particularly the 120% initially levied against China.
Unsurprisingly, no one in “The World's Greatest Deliberative Body” has felt a need, beyond vague generalities, to consult or coordinate with NATO, or EU leadership, or Asian allies, on the likely consequences of even a partial implementation of this massive legislation.
Graham’s gambit should carry a warning label stating that it could well cause a huge disruption to the global economy, rippling around the world with most unpredictable consequences. Not least of these, as pointed out by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is the danger to the status of the US dollar as the world's chief reserve currency.
The latest danger signal was Moody's May 16th lowering of the US sovereign debt rating. When Moody’s joined S&P and Fitch in taking this step, it was the first time all three rating agencies have simultaneously downgraded the US credit rating below their top rating.
To those who might comfort themselves with the belief that such a bill could never get through the House of Representatives, Graham and Blumenthal announced that they are already in discussions with House Democrats amenable to joining willing Republicans in gathering the requisite 218 signatures to bring about a discharge petition that would compel a vote on the Senate bill.
Meanwhile, France, Germany, and the UK enthusiastically prepare NATO for a possible war with Russia, led by the improbable “war hawks” Macron, Merz, and Starmer. However Europe may be saved from itself by the fact that one NATO government after another is collapsing or approaching collapse, owing to growing popular revolts over illegal immigration and support for the war in Ukraine.
Employing a European version of America's lawfare, France has arrested and banned the country's leading opposition figure – Marine Le Pen– from running in next year's presidential election. Germany is looking at banning the Alternative for Germany party (AFD), which currently polls within 2 percentage points of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU party. Meanwhile in the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer's approval rating has dropped to 24%, and his ruling Labour Party is trailing the upstart Reform UK led by Nigel Fararge by 8% points.
Adding to Europe's growing turmoil was the Presidential victory in Poland on June 1st of Karol Nawrocki of the anti-Ukraine aid Law And Justice Party, followed a day later by the collapse of the Dutch government upon the withdrawal of the country's largest party, led by Geert Wilders, from the ruling coalition.
At present there are just two factors that can end the war and the horrific death toll in Ukraine. One would be if the unraveling of European support for Ukraine becomes terminal, owing to the mounting economic turmoil and popular unrest. The other would be if President Trump refuses to be snared in the trap of following the failed policies of his predecessor.
If and if. The clock is ticking. Events are in the saddle. As Winston Churchill put it in an earlier moment of world crisis, “The Terrible Ifs accumulate.”
William Moloney studied history and politics at Oxford and the University of London and received his doctorate from Harvard University. His articles have appeared in the Wall St. Journal, USA Today, The Hill. The Washington Post, Washington Times. Philadelphia Inquirer, Baltimore Sun, Denver Post and Human Events.