The blueing of Arapahoe

There were hints in October that Arapahoe Republicans were in for another bad year. My precinct in Centennial, once as red as they come, blossomed with Obama yard signs. Then County Clerk Nancy Doty announced at the weekly GOP breakfast that voter registration in the county, which had tilted heavily our way until recently, now showed an edge of about 400 for the Dems.

According to the Clerk's official website, that edge is now almost 6000, and the new normal is depressingly evident in vote tallies from Nov. 4. The following summary is from a talk I gave to the Aurora Republican Forum last Saturday.

ARAPAHOE COUNTY VOTING TRENDS, 2002-2008

2008 Obama-D over McCain-R by 55-43% for President Udall-D over Schaffer-R by 54-42% for US Senate

2006 Ritter-D over Beauprez-R by 60-40% for Governor

2004 Bush-R over Kerry-D by 52-48% for President Salazar-D over Coors-R by 53-47% for US Senate

2002 Owens-R over Heath-D by 69-31% for Governor Allard-R over Strickland-D by 53-47% for US Senate

Another troubling indicator for Republicans is the erosion of their formerly unquestioned dominance of the Arapahoe County Board of Commissioners. A switch of just 565 votes in Commissioner Rod Bockenfeld's narrow reelection victory this year would have given the Dems 3-2 control of that board.

When I came to the State Senate in SD-27 in 1998, SD-28 to the east of me and SD-26 to the west of me were both Republican seats and taken for granted as safe. No more. Sen. Nancy Spence, who succeeded me four years ago and won again comfortably this year, is it for Republicans from our county in the upper house.

First, Democrat Suzanne Williams took 28 from Bruce Cairns in 2004 and was easily reelected this year. And now, subject to a recount, it appears Democrat Linda Newell has won 26 from Lauri Clapp, who was seeking to hold the GOP seat for retiring Sen. Steve Ward.

HD-38, covering part of the same Littleton area as SD-26, went to Joe Rice and the Democrat in 2006 when former Republican House leader Joe Stengel was termed out.

What has caused the blueing of Arapahoe? It's obviously some combination of new residents moving in as others leave, younger voters coming of age as seniors pass from the scene, and superior competitiveness of Democrats among unaffiliated voters.

Only that third factor is in Republicans' control, but it needs to be a focus of soul-searching and new efforts, or Colorado's oldest county will continue changing its political complexion in a way that leaves conservative old-timers shaking their heads.

Coloradans leaned right on ballot issues

While the Colorado losses by Schaffer and McCain are disappointing, we fared better on a number of statewide ballot issues. Amendments 47 and 49 went down to defeat at the hands of union-extorted money.

But Amendment 54 squeaked by 52-48, and it may well be the most efficacious of the three, limiting certain campaign contributions from unions and vendors of sole-sourch serivces to the government.

Amendment 59, which would have gutted TABOR, failed by a comfortable margin. Outgoing Speaker Romanoff completely sold out to this effort, but the artificially-induced budget squeeze will have to be resolved some other way.

Amendment 58, which would have hiked energy taxes going into a recession, likewise suffered the ignominious defeat it deseves.

Referendum O, which would have severely limited the ability of citizens to act as a check on their own legislature's excesses, went down to defeat as well.

And finally, Amendment 46, which would eliminate all racial and gender preferences by state actors, is failing very narrowly with most of the vote counted. That may still change with final returns.

Editor: Meanwhile in Nebraska, an identical civil rights initiative passed yesterday by 58-42%, sustaining some momentum for Ward Connerly's heroic national effort to achieve color-blind law. And Californians passed their Proposition 8, affirming marriage between one man and one woman in contravention of the recent state supreme court mandate for same-sex marriage.

Face it, FasTracks is a failure

RTD presents five FasTracks options to the public. All are permutations of the original plan, ranging from shortened lines and curtailed service, to the full system. Mentioned with muted voices are possibilities of a 2034 completion date, and the 67% tax increase approved in 2004 becoming a 116.67% increase. More federal grants will be requested. This would also fall short, even in a mild recession.

The original 0.6% tax thirty years ago (!) was authorized with the stipulation of providing rail. None was built. Recognize that sales tax increases hurt business. Taking billions out of the economy is recessionary.

The project is currently $3.2 billion over budget, with $2.8 billion tax revenue shortfall anticipated. There’s the matter of each community being assessed 2% of the cost. Most communities have no idea where this is coming from. Some say, “in-kind services.” Mysteriously, this recently became 2-1/2%. Look for a local tax increase. The Federal share could build all the highways we need.

The economic downturn and rising materials costs are blamed. Many other major projects are progressing. There was intentional low-balling and ignoring of associated items, to make the project more attractive. Add a generous serving of incompetence.

Continuation of these rail options is a distraction from proven transportation solutions. Original RTD and Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) studies ranked rail as less efficient than bus rapid transit (BRT), in terms of speed, frequency, flexibility, capital cost, and operating expenses. All recent US General Accounting Office (GAO) Reports to Congress reinforce this. Rail projects across the country are financial disasters with declining ridership. Only one city, New York, has a rail system that carries as much as one freeway lane.

FasTracks was conceived as a response to traffic congestion. DRCOG forecast a negligible 0.43% reduction by the target year, with consultants predicting zero effect. Note that transit oriented development (TOD), catchwords for liberal urban planners, invariably causes sub-regional traffic congestion. Recommendations are made for nearly 30 times the typical suburban density, requiring high rise buildings. Suggestions are made for forcing people to use rail and live in TODs.

Much of the impetus for the project comes from land speculators who profit by obtaining local council high density approvals. Eminent domain abuses are inflaming the public.

Proponents admit that the project is a fiasco, progressing because of voter approval. Voters were given the choice between a rail project, or no project. The ballot offered no choices or comparisons of proven alternate modes. Voters were asked to choose the most costly project in Colorado’s history on the basis of feel-good slogans. Public comment is limited to minutiae… bicycles on trains, toilets in stations…with basics avoided.

Why continue the fiasco? RTD recently let a $184 million no-bid contract, after learning that the contractor has been involved in massive bribery scandals. Audit reveals their $2.3 billion slush-fund for “questionable transactions.” $543,000 in political contributions were made by contract recipients. RTD's manager has an annual half-million package, and his city councilor wife is involved in TOD approvals. It’s called wiring contracts by “pay-to-play” manipulators. Firms making six-digit contributions expect, and receive, contracts.

Existing Denver rail runs at 10% of capacity, as compared to nearly 40% nationally, and with many riding because of curtailed bus service. FasTracks will increase air pollution and create 138 grade crossings and 2,000 dead ends, seriously hampering emergency vehicle response.

This project is a dog and should be repealed.

Talk radio stars headed here

Conservative radio hosts Michael Medved, Dennis Prager, and Hugh Hewitt, my colleagues on 710 KNUS, will speak at a voter turnout rally next Monday, Oct. 27, at the Marriott DTC Hotel, I-25 & Belleview, starting at 7pm. It's free and open to the public. I'll be there, hope you will too. It's the first stop of a five-state fly-in for the righty talkers trio during the final week of election 2008, sponsored by Salem Communications, their syndication company. From Denver, Medved, Prager, and Hewitt will barnstorm at additional battleground stops in Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Townhall.com, Salem's political site where all three also write columns, has more details about the Oct. 27 rally and the whole tour, linked here.

It doesn't take a crystal ball to predict that here in Colorado they'll draw a sharp contrast between McCain and Obama, and between Schaffer and Udall, maybe just slightly leaning toward the Republican in each case.

And the tour will probably draw extra motivation from the on-air admission by Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) this week that Dems will reinstate the (Un) Fairness Doctrine next year if they can, effectively muzzling conservative talk radio.

Help these great GOP candidates

Here's the contact information for nine key legislative races as featured on Backbone Radio 10/12, along with a number of others we'll profile in upcoming shows. Weak Democrat performance since 2006 by Ritter and his legislative allies opens the door for GOP gains in 2008 to narrow the gap -- 40-25 in the House, 20-15 in the Senate -- and position Republicans to regain the majority in 2008.

Your financial contributions, volunteer time, and word of mouth encouragement can make the difference in victory for these excellent candidates on 11/4.

PRIORITY REPUBLICAN SENATE RACES

R Seats Being Defended (District Number, Current Incumbent)

(23- Mitchell) Shawn Mitchell http://www.mitchellforcolorado.com/ (8- Open) Al White http://www.alwhite4co.com/ (26- Open) Lauri Clapp http://lauriclapp.net/

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D Seats Being Challenged (District Number, Current Incumbent)

(19- Windels) Libby Szabo http://libbyszabo.com/ (25- Takis) John Hadfield http://www.robertjohnhadfield.com/ (14- Bacon) Matt Fries http://mattfries.com/ (17 -Shaffer) Katie Witt www.katiewitt.com

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PRIORITY REPUBLICAN HOUSE RACES

R Seats Being Defended (District Number, Current Incumbent)

(17- Open) Catherine “Kit” Roupe http://www.catherineroupe.com/ (22- Summers) Ken Summers http://www.kensummers.org/ (37- Swalm) Spencer Swalm http://www.spencerswalm.com/ (39- Balmer) David Balmer http://www.davidbalmer.com/

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D Seats Being Challenged (District Number, Current Incumbent)

(27- Gagliardi) John Bodnar http://johnbodnar.net/ (30- Open) Kevin Priola http://www.kevinpriola.com/ (31- Solano) Holly Hansen http://www.hollyhansen.org/ (38- Rice) Dave Kerber http://www.kerberforcolorado.com/ (40- Open) Cindy Acree http://www.cindyacree.com/ (52- Kefalas) Bob McClusky http://www.bobmccluskey.com/ (62- Open) Randy Jackson http://standtallcolorado.com/ (64- McKinley) Ken Torres http://kentorres.com/

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AND OTHERS WHO ARE RUNNING HARD

While experts consider these races more of a long shot for Republicans, we in Backbone are impressed with the spirit, dedication, and qualifications of such candidates as...

(HD-55 Buescher) Laura Bradford http://bradfordforhouse.com

(HD-34 Soper) Tom Bopp homespeck12@aol.com

(HD-1 Labuda) Tom Thomason http://www.electtom.com/

(HD-10 Open, was Madden) Dorothy Marshall dorothy@davidamarshall.com